"It's not zero"

Professor Whitty was speaking to the Commons science and technology committee this morning, and warned that there will be another surge in Covid cases and deaths as the country moves out of lockdown. His warning comes after models show that as many as 30,000 more deaths could come as restrictions begin to ease across England. Whilst acknowledging that the vaccine rollout is "hugely successful", England's chief medical officer warned that several factors mean that we are likely to see a resurgence in case numbers. Professor Whitty said: "Even when people are fully vaccinated a significant minority, it's not large but a significant minority do go on to get significant disease. It's not zero." Along with the fact that some have chosen not to take the vaccine or have not been able to have the vaccine, and that there remain people in the lower age groups who are at risk, Professor Whitty explained the reasoning behind the warning. "The modelling is just reflecting the fact that because this is such a common virus against large numbers of people - even if you have a relatively small proportion of people still remaining vulnerable - that still equates to a very large number of people overall." The first stage of lockdown easing began yesterday as children returned to school, with the next stage planned to be on March 29, with the return of the rule of six outdoors. The ultimate aim is that all restrictions can be lifted by June 21. Professor Whitty's claim was backed up by Sir Patrick Vallance, who said it was inevitable that there would be some increase in case rates and death as a result of restrictions easing. However he emphasised that the plans to ease lockdown were still very much in line with the principles set out by the Sage scientific advisory panel, and remain "consistent with minimising that increase as you open things."