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18th Nov 2024

People are just realising what percentage of snow really means

Its meaning has been muddled in recent yearsWith a supposed ’15-hour snow front forecasted to hit parts of the UK,...

Harry Warner

Its meaning has been muddled in recent years

With a supposed ’15-hour snow front forecasted to hit parts of the UK, many are checking up on their weather apps to get a better understanding of where they might be impacted.

When checking the weather app on a smartphone, many see ’70 per cent snow’ and assume that it means there is a 70 per cent coverage it will snow in that area, at that time.

This has become a recent trend with people confusing the American system with the British meaning, thinking that coverage is involved in the equation.

This has been disproven by the Met Office who made a TikTok detailing exactly what the number means.

@metoffice 30% chance of rain? #Edutok #LearnOnTikTok #Rain @scarlettmoffatt @ladbible ♬ original sound – Met Office

However, though slightly closer to the truth, that explanation isn’t 100 per cent correct either.

What it really means is that, out of 100 simulations run, 70 guaranteed precipitation in that area at that time.

AccuWeather Assistant Chief Video Meteorologist Geoff Cornish weighed in with his own explanation.

“We don’t want anyone to overthink this,” Cornish said.

“Your probability of precipitation is the likelihood that you will receive measurable precipitation during the forecast timeframe.

“It is the probability that at least 0.01 of an inch of precipitation will fall on your rooftop if you live in the forecast area. That’s about enough rain to produce a small, underwhelming puddle.”

Cornish explained that two ingredients are built into that probability percentage; the confidence level in precipitation developing and also how widespread or spotty the precipitation might be.

The probability of precipitation has nothing to do with the length of time precipitation may fall or the intensity at which it could fall.

Cornish added: “Take it at face value. Your probability of precipitation is simply the chance of rain on a scale of zero to 100, if it’s warm enough for rain, at some point in the forecast time. The same applies to snow, freezing rain or sleet.”

One person noted that how people had indeed been getting the meaning confused with the American version.

They wrote: “That’s what you get when you copy word for word from an American user.”

While another said: “THANK YOU ALEX! Been fighting this corner on TikTok for days.”

Meanwhile one person didn’t see the fuss and put: “Thought this was just common sense no?”

Well, there you have it, even if you did know, now you can be confident in the fact that percentage snow really does mean chance.

Topics:

News,Weather