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Published 13:12 18 Nov 2024 GMT
Updated 14:55 18 Nov 2024 GMT

With a supposed '15-hour snow front forecasted to hit parts of the UK, many are checking up on their weather apps to get a better understanding of where they might be impacted.
When checking the weather app on a smartphone, many see '70 per cent snow' and assume that it means there is a 70 per cent coverage it will snow in that area, at that time.
This has become a recent trend with people confusing the American system with the British meaning, thinking that coverage is involved in the equation.
This has been disproven by the Met Office who made a TikTok detailing exactly what the number means.
@metoffice 30% chance of rain? #Edutok #LearnOnTikTok #Rain @scarlettmoffatt @ladbible ♬ original sound - Met Office
However, though slightly closer to the truth, that explanation isn’t 100 per cent correct either.
What it really means is that, out of 100 simulations run, 70 guaranteed precipitation in that area at that time.
AccuWeather Assistant Chief Video Meteorologist Geoff Cornish weighed in with his own explanation.
“We don’t want anyone to overthink this,” Cornish said.
“Your probability of precipitation is the likelihood that you will receive measurable precipitation during the forecast timeframe.
“It is the probability that at least 0.01 of an inch of precipitation will fall on your rooftop if you live in the forecast area. That’s about enough rain to produce a small, underwhelming puddle.”
Cornish explained that two ingredients are built into that probability percentage; the confidence level in precipitation developing and also how widespread or spotty the precipitation might be.
The probability of precipitation has nothing to do with the length of time precipitation may fall or the intensity at which it could fall.
Cornish added: “Take it at face value. Your probability of precipitation is simply the chance of rain on a scale of zero to 100, if it's warm enough for rain, at some point in the forecast time. The same applies to snow, freezing rain or sleet.”
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