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06th Dec 2018

Only two constituencies support Theresa May’s Brexit deal

The poll comes less than five days before the crunch vote on the deal in parliament

Jean-Emile Jammine

The poll comes less than five days before the crunch vote on the deal in parliament

Pressure is piling further on Prime Minister Theresa May after a poll revealed that her Brexit deal was supported in just two parliamentary constituencies across the whole UK – Tory-held Broxbourne and Christchurch.

The PM’s deal is currently supported by only 27 per cent of Brits putting her offer level with a no deal agreement (even though a no deal has a lead support in 30 seats). Remain, meanwhile has a popularity of 46 percent nationally and is the first preference in 600 constituencies.


The poll comes after the prime minister last month delivered the three option ultimatum to her MPs: her deal, no deal or no Brexit. This was the largest survey on Brexit to date, with nearly 21,000 people participating in the poll. The same methodology was used which nearly perfectly predicted the hung parliamentary results of 2017.

Supporters were asked to rank May’s deal/no deal/remain options in order of preferences. The latest results point to the fact that support is low in both leave and remain camps; however the numbers change substantially when certain options are taken out, known as the “Condorcet method.”

The modelling shows that currently only just over a quarter of the UK public support May’s deal. However this changes to 65 percent if pitted against a no deal after removing Remain as an option. If a ‘no deal’ is taken off the table, the results become a lot tighter, with a 50-50 split between May’s deal and Remain.

If May’s deal is taken away, the results look very much like those of the referendum but in reverse. Remain with 52 per cent support while a no-deal would receive 48 per cent.

If British legislators back the plan devised by May’s government, then an EU Withdrawal Agreement bill will be introduced in parliament. It must be ratified by the members before it can proceed to a European Parliament vote before receiving EU Council approval. However this is looking increasingly unlikely, with Labour, the SNP and other Tory Brexiters stating publicly that they will not back the December 11 deal.