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25th Oct 2018

No-deal Brexit could cost young people in excess of £100,000, new analysis finds

James Dawson

All possible eventualities of leaving the European Union will result in young people losing money, a new report has found

New research analysis has found that Brexit could have severe consequences for young people living in Britain, projecting that they could each lose as much as £108,000 in earnings by 2050.

The report, commissioned by anti-Brexit youth organisation Our Future, Our Choice and led by University of Oxford economic researcher Thomas Peto, found that all potential eventualities of leaving the EU will result in a loss of earnings for Brits aged between 18-30 years old.

The analysis applied a study produced by LSE academics and the NIESR to young people, weighting the results by the sectors young people predominately work in.

The cost of crashing out of the EU on World Trade Organisation terms was modelled at up to £108,000 in lost earnings for young people by 2050, with the likely cost amounting to £76,000 in lost wages and a minimum loss of £44,000. While projected income losses if a free-trade agreement was negotiated were estimated as between £30,000 and £72,000.

Even if Britain was to remain in the European Economic Area, the research found that young people would stand to lose between £7,000 and £32,000.

Our Future, Our Choice chief spokesperson Femi Oluwole said: “This report shows that young people will lose the most from any Brexit deal. We are a generation who don’t want to live with Brexit, yet it will cost us three times more than tuition fees, or double the average deposit needed for a house in lost wages and earnings.

“Now that the implications for our generation have become clear, we need a People’s Vote on the government’s Brexit deal.”

However, a government spokesperson claimed the research was “outdated” and insisted that it was focused on “securing a deal that works for everyone in the UK, including young people.”

“The provisional draft analysis used as the basis for these estimates was undertaken before the Government published its White Paper on our Future Economic Partnership with the EU,” the government spokesperson said.

“It is therefore outdated and fails to analyse the scenario we are focused on delivering – a mutually beneficial deal that ensures tariff-free trade between the UK and the EU that is frictionless at the border.”

The release of the study comes after in excess of 500,000 people were estimated to march in London in favour of a People’s Vote on Brexit, however, Prime Minister Theresa May has repeatedly ruled out holding a second referendum on Brexit.

Recent research has also suggested that over two and a half million people have now changed their mind and no longer want to leave the European Union and that a majority of Brits believe the decision to leave was wrong in hindsight.