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22nd Aug 2022

UK inflation to hit 19 per cent by January, leading investment bank predicts

Jack Peat

It will be the highest peak in almost half a century

A leading investment bank has warned that UK inflation could hit 18.6 per cent in January.

With the cost-of-living crisis set to intensify over the winter months, Citi has suggested that inflation could go “into the stratosphere”, hitting half-century highs.

Last month, the increase in prices of food and household staples saw inflation reach its highest level in over 40 years as it soared to 10.1 per cent.

Citi said their latest prediction is that it is likely to go much higher than that in the coming months, and precisely at the worst time.

The investment bank predicted that the retail energy price cap would be raised to £4,657 in January and then £5,816 in April, compared with the current level of £1971 a year.

It said these shifts would lead to inflation “entering the stratosphere”.

Chief UK economist at Citi Benjamin Nabarro said: “We now expect CPI inflation to peak at over 18 per cent in January.”

This would be higher than the peak of inflation after the second Opec oil shock of 1979 when it reached 17.8 per cent, according to estimates from the Office for National Statistics.

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