Search icon


26th Nov 2018

Theresa May’s Brexit deal ‘will cost UK £100bn every year’ by 2030

James Dawson

The economy will be £1,090 per person worse off than if Britain remained in the EU, according to the findings

Theresa May’s proposed EU withdrawal deal could cost the UK £100 billion per year in the first decade outside of the European Union, according to the first independent analysis of the agreement.

The hit to the UK’s economy would be the equivalent of an average of £1,090 per person and cause an overall shrink of the economy by 3.9 per cent each year compared to if the UK was to remain in the European Union.

The research was undertaken by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) and commissioned by the People’s Vote campaign.

The report states: “Our key finding is that if the government’s proposed Brexit deal is implemented so that the UK leaves the EU customs union and single market in 2021, then by 2030, GDP will be around 4 per cent lower than it would have been had the UK stayed in the EU.

“This is largely because higher impediments to services trade make it less attractive to sell services from the UK. This discourages investment in the UK and ultimately means that UK workers are less productive than they would have been if the UK had stayed in the EU.”

It also warns that tax revenue could fall by as much as two per cent, resulting in an £18-23bn drop in public finances.

Liberal Democrat leader and People’s Vote campaigner Sir Vince Cable said: “If anything, the bleak predictions contained in this report are an under-estimate of severe damage our economy will suffer in the future of this deal goes ahead because it takes no account of the draining away of confidence in business and the impact on investors who no longer see the UK as a gateway to Europe.

“The only way to resolve this looming crisis is for MPs to hand such a crucial decision back to the British people by giving them the final say on Brexit through a People’s Vote.”

The release of the study comes as Theresa May today began a campaign to get public and parliamentary backing for her Brexit deal ahead of the crunch vote on the deal that is set to take place on 11 December.