The chances of no Brexit are now greater than no deal, poll of economists finds 1 year ago

The chances of no Brexit are now greater than no deal, poll of economists finds

It's more likely Brexit will be cancelled than the United Kingdom will leave the European Union without a deal

A poll of economists has found that the UK leaving the EU without a deal is now less likely than Brexit being cancelled.


The latest research by Reuters showed very few predicting a "disorderly" departure but that a free-trade deal would be agreed.

Only one of the 51 respondents said a 'no deal' outcome was more likely than not, the average probability being 15 per cent - the lowest chance since Reuters began asking the question in July 2017.

Nigel Farage has bet £1,000 that his Brexit party will secure the most seats (at the European elections Credit: Matthew Lewis)

BNP Paribas economists said: "Apart from the fact that no-deal Brexit is now less likely, the path ahead is as unclear as ever. A deal (and likely a softer Brexit) still seems more likely than not but we are sceptical that this will happen any time soon."

The poll also found most respondents expect a raise in interest rates by the Bank of England to be pushed back.

Now delayed until October, the UK is not due to leave the EU until October 31 - contingent on a withdrawal agreement being passed in parliament.


As yet, prime minister Theresa May's withdrawal agreement has suffered two historic defeats and a series of indicative votes in the House of Commons have failed to accrue a single majority. The slimmest margins of defeat have been for membership of the EU's customs union and a second referendum.

European elections at the end of May draw closer. The Brexit party led by Nigel Farage is leading in the polls.