Tuesday’s transfer rumour power rankings: Pogba, Sane and… Thomas Vermaelen

Finding accurate information in the last month of a transfer window is like cleaning out your oven. There's something shiny and new if you work hard enough, but often it's been so long that you forget what 'good' is meant to look like.

For all the out-of-nowhere quality rumours, like the last-minute stories linking Manchester United with an expensive French teenager last summer, there are those which are patently false. Or, worse, were just tools for players to earn new improved deals with their parent clubs. This month, instead of trying to bluff our way through and pass off guesswork as inside knowledge, we're going to bring you our thoughts on some of the most likely deals...as well as the least likely. In this, the first instalment of our power rankings, we have seven rumours for you ranging from nailed-on to 'nah', based on the information in front of us and nothing more.

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1. Leroy Sané - Schalke to Manchester City

The German international is in Manchester. How do we know? Schalke said so themselves. If that's not evidence that a deal is close then nothing is. We haven't had a Leroy of this quality in the top flight since Fer, Lita, Rosenior ever, so for that reason alone we need the deal to go through.  Update: this was so nailed-on that it in fact happened within minutes of us writing this story https://twitter.com/ManCity/status/760399898831425537

2. Paul Pogba - Juventus to Manchester United

It's definitely happening, it's just a case of when. Except we said the same thing about David de Gea joining Real Madrid last summer. We'll wait until he's wearing a Man United shirt while holding up another Man United shirt for some reason. Seriously, why do they do that? https://twitter.com/EamoV1/status/477113819333132290

3. Ashley Williams - Swansea City to Everton

The words 'fee agreed' are cropping up in plenty of reports today, and it makes sense for Everton to add a £10m centre-back to a back-line including comedy punchline Ramiro Funes Mori, broken human Phil Jagielka, and walking sack-with-a-dollar-sign John Stones. The only hitch could be Williams 'pulling a Vardy' and deciding he quite likes the smell of Wind Street on a Saturday night. https://twitter.com/n_kituno/status/760199934943563776 https://twitter.com/thehuwdavies/status/760197541090779137

4. Mario Gomez - Besiktas to West Ham

Gomez is thought to want out of Turkey, West Ham need a striker, West Ham have just signed the German's former club team-mate Gökhan Töre and Slaven Bilic watched a lot of Euro 2016 football, where Mario Gomez did his thing. The only hold-up? All the other strikers who aren't Mario Gomez, who West Ham might look to sign. https://twitter.com/ReadWestHam/status/748238058642878468

5. Romelu Lukaku - Everton to Chelsea

We've been here before. Both in the 'Chelsea spend big on former player' stakes and 'Premier League club spend big on former player in summer 2016' stakes (see #2). But the prospect of Antonio Conte agreeing to part with a reported £75m on one player in his first transfer window seems remote, unless the Blues get a lot more than they paid for Diego Costa first. https://twitter.com/neal_sousbois/status/760144228961882112

6. Thomas Vermaelen - Barcelona to Arsenal

The biggest argument for this one is surely 'Arsène Wenger clearly doesn't give two shits what his own team's supporters think'. There's no way Arsenal fans would countenance a return for football's injuredest man™ unless the alternative was Francis Coquelin playing centre-back. So you're saying there's a chance. https://twitter.com/nikhilk_98/status/760379310481911808

7. Mario Balotelli to Pescara

Pescara's owner reportedly told the Italian media "We don't need to buy figurines just to make somebody happy," when asked about a move for Liverpool outcast Balotelli. The striker will surely forever hold a grudge against those little Corinthian figures for failing to surpass shirt sales as a method of deeming deals commercially viable or otherwise. https://twitter.com/ryansongalia/status/657145151693783041 Want to win a free TV or iPad? Enter the draw to win one by taking part in this quick survey.