Search icon

Politics

18th Oct 2022

New poll shows Tories wouldn’t even be the main opposition party at an election

Tobi Akingbade

A major new poll has predicted the complete annihilation of the Conservatives at the next general election – to the point where they wouldn’t even be the opposition party

Great numbers for Liz and her crew

A major new poll has predicted the complete annihilation of the Conservatives at the next general election – to the point where they wouldn’t even be the opposition party.

If the poll played out at a real general election, the Labour Party would be set to gain an unprecedented 364-seat majority, leaving the current governing party with just 48 seats.

The Scottish National Party (SNP) would have 52 seats – making it the official opposition.

The data came from a ‘poll of polls’ conducted over the weekend, which sampled 11,538 people.

Under new ‘advanced modelling’ methods, Electoral Calculus used the data to predict if an election were held tomorrow, Labour would win 507 seats.

Even in the best-case scenario predicted by the data, the Conservatives would still be left with less than 200 seats.

To make matters worse for the Tories, the data was collected between September 26 and 30 – two weeks before prime minister Liz Truss sacked her right-hand man Kwasi Kwarteng and was forced to scrap key parts of her mini-Budget after it sent the economy into meltdown.

Elsewhere, after already having the ignominy of being more unpopular than Boris Johnson ever was during his time as prime minister, Liz Truss has almost sunk to an even more remarkable depth.

This is a 14 point drop since last week, when Kwasi Kwarteng was still chancellor and Jeremy Hunt hadn’t yet put the Prime Minister’s entire economic philosophy through a shredder.

For context, her leadership rival Rishi Sunak has a net favourability rating of -18, and Keir Starmer has a score of -5.

But journalist Owen Jones then took to Twitter to point out a far more embarrassing comparison – that Truss is almost as unpopular with the British public as Vladimir Putin is.

The Russian president has a net favourability rating of -74.

According to YouGov, just 10 percent of Brits have a favourable impression of Truss, down from 15% in a previous survey on 11-12 October.

Who are these 10 percent, and what world are they living in?

Truss continues to be staggeringly unpopular among her own party’s supporters as well, with just one in five Tory voters having a favourable view of her, and 71 percent having an unfavourable view.

This gives her a net favourability score of -51 among Conservatives.

Tory MPs have already started calling for Truss to step down, and there are discussions in the party about how she could be ousted from her position.

But on Monday, the PM told the BBC that she would lead the Tories into the next election.

Truss apologised for going “too far, too fast” with the mini-budget last month but said she remained committed to a “low tax, high growth economy.”

Related links: