Latest Makerfield by-election prediction after poll leaked

The by-election is set to be held next Thursday

Back when this crunch by-election was called, many expected it to be a closer race between Reform and Labour, with Makerfield being a Leave-voting constituency in which Nigel Farage’s party had seen success at May’s local elections.

Since then, a combination of factors seem to have swung the election in favour of Labour and Andy Burnham.

These factors include the controversy surrounding Reform’s candidate Robert Kenyon and his old social media posts, his failure to properly address the upset around the posts, and the popularity of Burnham in the Greater Manchester area.

But another key factor looks like it will be the influence of Rupert Lowe’s hard-right Restore Britain.

For weeks, Reform appear to be terrified by the prospect of their right-wing cousins stealing a significant proportion of votes from them.

And it seems like these fears are well-founded.

According to a leaked poll circulated among Labour staffers and published by the I Paper, Labour are leading the way in Makerfield on 35%, with Reform considerably further back on 24%.

Crucially though, Restore are polling at 13%, suggesting they may leach enough support away from Reform to stop Kenyon winning the seat.

This level of support for Restore is significantly higher than other polls, which have had the party on around seven or eight per cent.

The leaked polling is the latest sign of the changing fortunes for both Reform and Labour in the by-election.

Following a disastrous Question Time appearance last week, the bookies slashed their odds on Labour to win the north-west seat.

Polling from Survation also found Labour were leading the way in Makerfield on 49%, ten points clear of Reform.

Could be this a sign of things to come at the next general election…