Odds and polls revealed ahead of tomorrow’s Clacton by-election

The big day is upon us.

The people of Clacton-on-Sea will take to the polls tomorrow to decide whether it will be a win for Farage and Reform, or the first-ever 'Bindependence Day'.

This comes after Farage resigned from the seat last month.

Of course, Farage resigned from his seat as Clacton MP in what he labelled the 'people vs the establishment' although this comes in the backdrop of a parliamentary investigation into undeclared gifts he had received supposedly before returning to politics.

In the wake of his resignation, all the major parties refused to field a candidate in the triggered by-election, refusing to take part in what was quickly labelled a "circus" - even by that bloke who dresses as a fox.

This "circus" which has surrounded the by-election which many have deemed unnecessary and at the cost to the taxpayer was seized upon by Count Binface very swiftly, who is now seen as the major opposition in the by-election.

While being a satirical character in the past, not genuinely trying to pick up votes, Binface has emerged as an actual contender to Farage thanks to the media publicity and backlash towards the Reform leader.

Count Binface's manifesto includes a number of zingers, including "fixing potholes with copies of the 2024 Labour manifesto" and "99 Flakes to be capped at 99p".

You can read his full manifesto here.

The scores on the political doors

Anyway, with all this in mind, polling has been rather difficult compared to previous elections in the constituency, but we finally have the first poll which indicates who may win.

As per Survation, in the most recent poll at the start of August, Nigel Farage is still set to sweep up 73% of the vote, with Binface set for around 20%.

Other candidates, of which there are a number, make up the remaining 7%.

While many Binface fans will be disappointed by these numbers, it's worth remembering that Count Binface is a satirical character and that a 20% vote share is likely to be the best he ever gets against one of the nation's most infamous politicians.

In terms of odds, as per SkyBet, Farage is the clear leader at 1/40, meaning a £1 winning bet would only return £1.03.

Meanwhile, Binface is second with 12/1 odds, meaning £1 would return £13 if he wins.

The by-election is set to be held tomorrow (Thursday, 13 August).