Latest Clacton poll predicts outcome of snap byelection

The numbers are in!

The news comes after Farage had announced he would be making a statement at 2pm today (7 July) about his "future in public life".

It read: "I will make a statement on my future in public life at 2pm."

As part of the 2pm statement, Farage would go on to confirm plans to resign as MP for Clacton-on-Sea, before affirming his decision to re-stand for election in the constituency.

The former UKIP leader and campaigner for the 2016 Brexit referendum had been seen as one of the clear favourites to be elected the next UK Prime Minister at the 2029 General Election, when he would challenge Labour leader-in-waiting Andy Burnham.

You can read more about the expected impact of Andy Burnham as a potential Prime Minister, and how it will affect polling in our piece here.

Farage's reputation as a political heavyweight has been forged over two years as an MP in which he has continued outperform Keir Starmer in polls.

March's local elections were the prime example of this, ultimately leading to Starmer's resignation last month.

It is beacuse of this progress as Reform leader that Farage's resignation will have come as a major shock.

But in the context of disputes about personal finances, and donations made to Reform, Farage has been unable to withstand a challenge.

Farage's real chances of regaining his seat, when the election takes place, have been revealed in early polling figures.

Taking to X to announce their figures, the account Election Maps UK, making use of a Nowcast Projection, puts Farage's party at 48.5% of the vote in Clacton.

Labour make up just 6.2%, and the Conservatives are on 19.2%.

The expectation of a clear Reform victory is also backed by the co-founder of Britain Elects, Ben Walker who took to X to say: "We'd be looking at Reform obtaining around 60% in Clacton in a general election held today."

It now remians to be seen whether that polling meets what voters decide when the byelection takes place.

A date has not yet been announced.

What did Nigel Farage say in his 2pm statement?

In his statement, Farage lamented about the success of Reform UK in recent years, including the local elections and recent rise of popularity in former red and blue areas.

He then went on to blame "the establishment" saying they could not beat Reform fairly.

He went on to say: "Let me be clear, I have not done anything wrong."

"I have not done anything wrong."

He added: "I believe I have absolutely obeyed the rules."

He then went on to outline the rules around declarations of parliamentary gifts.

He said: "Making money is not a crime."

Farage went on to talk about giving up his "well paid job" to become a member of European parliament.

He once again took credit for Brexit, saying he came out of the process with "very little money indeed".

He added that he worked for three years as an "influencer" between 2021 and 2024.

Farage then went on to ask "do we want leaders who know how to make money" and "how business works".

He criticised the current cabinet on the basis of the economy.

He then said standards investigations have been weaponised against him.

He added that he is the "most attacked politician in modern history."

Farage listed a number of threats and incidents which he has faced and claimed to have asked for home secretary "repeatedly for help".

He also referenced the murder of Charlie Kirk, claiming that Parliament reduced his security funding by 70% in the days after.

Farage went on to talk about the image of his home which was reportedly published in The Times, which he says as jeopardised the privacy of his daughter.

"Let me be clear, I will not tolerate the harassment of my family."

Speaking about donations, he criticised Labour's 'attempts' to "take their money" describing it as like "living in a communist country".

It seems that he will remain as leader of Reform UK.

A public meltdown

All this comes after Nigel Farage was filmed having an almighty meltdown after he was asked about undeclared gifts from convicted criminal George Cottrell.

In its essence, the most recent Farage controversy (yes, there have been plenty) revolves around the Reform UK leader receiving gifts from Cottrell in the year before he became an MP.

Under parliamentary rules, new members must declare financial interests and "registrable benefits" received in the 12 months before their election.

It has been reported that Farage did not declare these gifts.

Cottrell faced 20 years in jail for 21 counts related to money laundering, fraud, blackmail and extortion.

He eventually brokered a plea deal, admitted guilt to a charge of wire fraud and ended up serving just eight months in prison.

This was indeed the subject matter of questions posed by a Sky News journalist yesterday to Nigel Farage as he returned from - checks notes - Independence Day celebrations in America.

Farage's reaction to the questions quickly went viral as it became clear that he's feeling a bit hot under the collar with the constant controversies coming his way.

"You tell your bosses, you harass my family anymore, there will be serious consequences," he said.

"That's what your organisation has done this morning, go away."

Farage starts to walk away as the journalist replies: "Was it a mistake to not declare the gifts, sir?"

The Reform leader spins around in a fit of rage saying, "did you not hear me?"

"You have broken all the rules, Leveson and everything."

Farage has since continued his claim on X that Sky had repeatedly "hounded" his daughter after he claimed The Times had revealed where he lived.

Both these claims have been denied.

In a post to X, Sky News said: "Farage accused Sky News of 'harassing' his family; Sky News has not contacted anyone from his family about the story."

A turbulent leadership

Nigel Farage co-founded Reform UK in 2018 when it was known as the Brexit Party at the time.

In December 2019, the party was rebranded to Reform UK.

In March 2021, Farage stepped down as leader of the party letting Richard Tice take the reins before he returned as leader in 2024 ahead of the last general election.

Despite a slow start, his party has seen notable success, growing rapidly in recent years as the supposed voice of the right.

Massive gains in the recent local elections and a constant vote share higher than any other party, as per the polls, has Reform as favourites ahead of the next, but far away, general election.