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3rd July 2024
05:42pm BST
After five weeks of vigorous - and often shambolic - campaigning, the 2024 general election is finally here.
More than four and a half years after Boris Johnson guided the Tories to a landslide victory in 2019, the UK will once again go to the polls. This time though, the result is likely to be a catastrophically different story for the Conservatives.
Rishi Sunak may be trying to convince us he thinks otherwise, but really, everyone knows which way this election is going. Labour are all but certain to win a huge majority, and even Tory ministers are admitting it.
The final YouGov poll projection of the campaign is finally here, and it predicts a landslide for Labour.
Sky News reports that the last MRP from YouGov predicts that Labour will end up with 431 seats, surpassing Blair's record for the party of 419 seats in 1997.
If this is the case, it will make Starmer Labour's most successful leader in electoral terms. In fact, it would give Starmer the biggest majority since 1832.
The poll predicts that the Conservatives will end up with 102 seats, and the Liberal Democrats chasing them with 72 seats.
Reform is set to win three seats, the Greens two and the SNP 18 - down from their 48 seats in 2019.
Despite the result seemingly being largely clear already, that doesn't mean there won't be some drama on election night.
Some high profile names look as if they could lose their seat, so if you would like to watch a Tory lose, then it's worth being in the know.
Of the 650 seats that will be announced, these are the ones you should be watching out for on Thursday night/Friday morning.
Whilst this may not strike you as a hugely significant seat, the newly-created constituency of Blyth and Ashington is likely where the action will kick off on Thursday night. After the hugely important exit poll is announced at 10pm, Blyth and Ashington is this year expected to be the first seat in the country to announce its result, firing the starting gun on a night of political drama.
Ian Lavery is predicted to hold this Labour stronghold, with the seat expected to declare at around 11:30pm. Shortly after, you can expect to see Houghton and Sunderland South become the second seat to declare at around 11:45pm.
This could be a historic election in a number of ways, but in the Yorkshire constituency of Richmond and Northallerton, something could happen for the first time ever - a sitting Prime Minister could lose his seat.
Yes, Rishi Sunak is facing a battle to hold on to his parliamentary seat. Nothing would symbolise just how unpopular this government is than the prime minister himself losing his seat, and polls are suggesting there's a very real possibility this happens.
Quite simply, a sitting prime minister has never lost his seat at a general election. But if you fancy watching a potentially historic result, you'll probably need to set an alarm - unless you're braving an all-nighter - with the constituency set to declare at around 4am.
You'll also get the joy of watching Sunak stand on stage next to Count Binface, who is also standing in this constituency.
There are a number of Tory heavyweights who could be ousted at this election. After Sunak, the biggest name who will be sweating over his seat is Chancellor Jeremy Hunt.
Hunt is under huge pressure from the Lib Dems in the Surrey constituency, and he could become the first ever serving chancellor to be unseated at an election. There's is huge potential for this to be the Portillo moment of the 2024 general election. The seat is expected to declare at around 3:30am.
It's not just senior Tories who are under pressure at this election. You may be sat reading this thinking that, if the polls are anything to go by, it looks almost impossible for a Labour MP to be voted out.
But that's exactly what might happen to Shadow Cabinet member Thangam Debbonaire in her seat of Bristol Central. Here, the Shadow Secretary of State for Culture, Media and Sport is set for an incredibly close battle with Green Party co-leader Carla Denyer.
All 14 Bristol City Council members are Greens, so its a huge target seat for them. At the moment, the polls suggest the Greens are on course to win the seat, in what would be a huge coup for the party.
Bristol Central is set to declare at 3:15am.
Another seat to keep an eye on in the early hours of Friday morning will be Islington North, where Jeremy Corbyn is seeking re-election as MP.
The former Labour leader - who has since been ousted from the party and is running as an independent - has been the MP for the London constituency since 1983.
He won a huge majority of 64 per cent in 2019, but now that he's standing as an independent and not as a Labour candidate, a win this time round is far from certain as support for Labour surges.
We can expect a result from Islington North at around 3am.
And finally, to Clacton. There's a strong chance this is the constituency you've heard the most about this election campaign. That's because this is where Nigel Farage is trying to be elected as an MP at the eighth time of trying.
The Reform leader hadn't initially been standing in this election but it wasn't long before he had a change of heart. It looks like he'll win in Clacton, but the wider story from the night will be just how many seats Reform come away with. They may be polling well, but in a first-past-the-post system this doesn't necessarily translate into seats.
Clacton is expected to declare at 4am.
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