A noted economics expert has detailed his predictions for the future of the British economy.
A week after Britain decided to leave the European Union in the EU referendum, the nation is still grappling with its economic future, but for Alex White, the future could see hardship ahead.
The pound dropped to its lowest level since 1985 immediately following Brexit, and according to White, who is the the Director of Country Analysis at the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), the bounceback may take longer than initially anticipated.
https://twitter.com/AlexWhite1812/status/748194632295649280
In a twenty four part chain of tweets, the leading economics expert outlined his predictions for the United Kingdom going forward. To Mr. White, the unpredictability of the UK post- Brexit could cause a contraction of 1% in 2017, which would also see a decline in investment of 8% and decline in private consumption of 3% in 2017.
In terms of exchange rates, Alex White predicts the pound levelling out at $1.24 in the years to come.
https://twitter.com/AlexWhite1812/status/748194881898700801
With a new Prime Minister expected in September 2016 following David Cameron’s resignation, White also predicts months of instability in government, with a new (likely pro-Leave) Prime Minister most likely having to invoke Article 50 and make moves to remove us from the single market EEA if they wish to make good on referendum promises.
The economic hits incurred from both decisions, could see the UK’s public debt reach 100% of the nation’s GDP (Gross domestic product – the value of all our finished goods and services) by 2018.
https://twitter.com/AlexWhite1812/status/748194980309643264
White also predicts that these economic hits could further destabilise the UK’s political systems. With the national effectively voting itself into another recession, it cause a major shift in political heartlands as former Labour heartlands change their political leanings.
17. UK establishment will take time to fully reassert itself. Lack of planning / credibility will lead to ongoing doubts about capacity
— Alex White (@AlexWhite1812) June 29, 2016
For White, the major learnings from his predictions is that leaving the EU could cause multiple large scale crisis to occur to the UK at the same time, with our systems equipped to handle them all.
23. We expect things to hold together, but see major downside risks – include possibility EU wont deal, or that crises spin out of control
— Alex White (@AlexWhite1812) June 29, 2016
Alex White’s full predictions can be found here, in this tweet chain. For those wanting to know more, he recommends you follow other economics experts at the EIU, including Danielle Haralambous and Aengus Collins EIU.
