Britain stands on the brink
Theresa May’s Brexit deal is forecast to suffer a landslide defeat in the House of Commons on Tuesday.
The prime minister’s draft agreement with the EU will be put to MPs, following a delay in December as the government stared down the barrel of a humiliating defeat.
May’s rescheduling to January appears to have had little impact on the projected result of the vote, with Election Maps UK forecasting defeat by 205 votes.
Brexit Deal Vote Forecast (13/01):
For: 217 (-6) // [199 to 245]
Against: 422 (+6) // [394 to 440]Defeat by 205 Votes // [149 to 245].
Changes with 12/01. pic.twitter.com/OcfisahzHL— Election Maps UK (@ElectionMapsUK) January 13, 2019
More than 100 Conservative MPs have already declared they intend to vote against May’s deal. When you add these up with Labour’s virtual mass rejection, the SNP and DUP it makes for grim reading at No 10.
The mapping service’s results indicate that the prime minister’s decision to delay the vote has had no impact on the predicted outcome. Some commentators suggested the looming Article 50 deadline for the UK’s exit from the EU on March 29 would force MPs into accepting the deal, being faced with a no deal as the only alternative.
That appears to not be the case.
Election Maps UK told JOE: “The data is mostly crowdsourced, but I check all of it to ensure it is correct. I also check news articles and MPs’ Twitter pages regularly to try and get in indication of how they will vote. I’ve also worked alongside other political twitter accounts like @326pols to remove any anomalous results and iron out discrepancies.
“What happens next is literally a lottery. If there is a no-confidence vote in the government, we could have a general election – but for that to happen the opposition parties need seven rebels (or 14 abstentions) from the government.
“If the no confidence vote fails, then we could see a shift in Labour’s stance to backing a people’s vote – which is what they say they will consider if they fail to get a general election.
“Obviously the default option is no deal, but there is no majority in parliament for that, so I think that MPs may even by willing to revoke A50 over a no deal. It really is a mess, but an exciting one.”
