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18th June 2025
12:11pm BST
A new analysis from the Met Office shows that month-long heatwaves with temperatures over 45C could be hitting the UK in the future.
With temperatures exceeding 30C this weekend, this news might not come as a big surprise.
Experts claim there is a 50% chance of temperatures climbing to 30C in the next 12 years, with higher temperatures of 45C not being ruled out either. They go on to say that a figure of 46.6C is "plausible" in that timeframe, per The Independent.
Aside from the scorching heat, it is believed that these extreme heatwaves could last for a month at a time, with forecasts warning that 12 consecutive days above 35C are possible.
The record of the hottest temperature recorded is 40.3C, in Coningsby, Lincolnshire, in summer 2022.
The Met Office uses global models to create a large number of climate outcomes in current conditions.
The research shows the chance of temperatures hitting 40C is more than 20 times more likely than it was back in the 1960s.
Dr Gillian Kay, senior scientist at the office and lead author of the study, explains:
“Because our climate continues to warm, we can expect the chance to keep rising.
“We estimate a 50:50 chance of seeing a 40C day again in the next 12 years.
“We also found that temperatures several degrees higher than we saw in July 2022 are possible in today’s climate.”
According to their climate model, the Met Office found that "much more severe" extremes could occur in our current climate.
The study concludes that up to two-thirds of summer days could rise above the heatwave threshold of 28C in south-east England, with those conditions lasting for over a month, and with a chance of up to 12 consecutive days with temperatures above 35C.
