Three reasons why Portugal are your best bet to win World Cup – and how to get best odds

Look a bit deeper - the case for Portugal is staggering

That's the narrative being thrown around this World Cup, and the odds reflect that.

But so little is being said about Portugal's squad, their run to the latter stages, and the form guide.

The bookies make them fourth favourites at 17/2 at time of writing, but given the short odds on the top three favourites, we think that's far, far too long.

Here, we break down why we think it's Portugal's time

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Click here or below to get the best price outright odds on World Cup winners with PricedUp

1) The best midfield in the tournament

Portugal's strongest claim lies in midfield. No nation can match what is offered by Bruno Fernandes, Vitinha and João Neves.

As we know Fernandes produced a record 21 Premier League assists during the 2025-26 season. Enough said: he's in the form of his life.

Vitinha completed more passes than any player across Europe's top five leagues while ranking among the leaders for progressive passes and possession retention. Boffin stats? These really do matter.

Neves established himself as one of Europe's elite ball-winning midfielders, ranking near the top of Ligue 1 for recoveries, tackles and pressures won.

Both Neves and Vitinha, of course, won the Champions League with PSG.

Fernandes creates, Vitinha controls and Neves disrupts. In knockout football, that combination often proves decisive.

While most contenders have one complete, elite midfielder, Portugal have three at the top of their game.

Spain are the biggest rival in this department with Pedri, Rodri and Fabian Ruiz, but Rodri is returning from a major ACL injury, and many would rank Bruno ahead of Fabian Ruiz.

For France, Camavinga has never fully established himself as a midfield leader, and Zaire-Emery is still only 20, while England have Declan Rice and an until-now unfancied Jude Bellingham. Who knows how Elliot Anderson will react on the biggest stage.

Recent World Cup winners have generally dominated central areas rather than relying solely on attacking stars, and Portugal have the best midfield on paper.

2) The Premier League and club team factor

These Portuguese players are battle-tested. Bruno Fernandes, Bernardo Silva, Rúben Dias, Diogo Dalot, Pedro Neto... their squad has a core who have spent years competing in the Premier League.

Under Roberto Martínez, Portugal have developed a consistent tactical identity built around possession, pressing and structured build-up play. It's not swashbuckling stuff, and it's not the unpredictable excitement we love to see from unknowns at a World Cup. But it is effective.

In short, they feel like a club team in an international tournament. Their Nations League win in 2025 - beating Spain and Germany in the process - felt as much. Having that cohesion and clear style is so key, in a condensed period where managers don't get much time with a large group.

During qualification, Portugal ranked among Europe's leaders for possession, passing accuracy and expected goals created. They control matches through organisation and structure, and they certainly don't not rely on individual moments of brilliance.

Major tournaments often reward cohesion over talent. Portugal have both. The big question remains over Cristiano Ronaldo's involvement: with the consensus being that latter-stage in game involvement would be preferred over first-choice involvement.

3) Portugal's Route to the Final

Winning a World Cup requires luck, and in some cases a favourable route.

Let's assume England, Spain, France and Argentina win their groups. England would likely face Mexico in the round of 16, then Brazil in the quarter-final. Spain and France would likely clash in the semi-final.

Now, you have to beat the best to win a tournament, but few can deny Portugal are on the right side of the draw here to reach a final without facing the two favourites, Spain or France, until the final.

If Portugal win their group, a round of 32 match against a third-place team awaits, followed by a likely meeting with Switzerland in the last 16.

A blockbuster match up with Argentina could await in the quarter-final, followed by England or Brazil in the semi. Tough, but not Spain and France tough.

Of all the favourites bar perhaps Spain, Portugal also have the most favourable group, with Colombia (world ranking 14th) proving the toughest opponents alongside DR Congo (45th) and Uzbekistan (50th).

England have Croatia (11th) in their group, France must navigate Senegal (16th) and Norway (31st), and Argentina face Austria (24th) and Algeria (27th).

How to get best odds on World Cup outrights

Whether you're convinced by Portugal or not, at the time of writing bookies PricedUp are offering the best price on the top 10 World Cup favourites.

And for the World Cup, PricedUp's new customer offer allows you to bet £20 and get £20 in free bets!

18+. New customers only. Opt in required. Minimum bet of £20 on any selections. Min odds of evens (2.00). Pre-game only. Free bet awarded upon settlement. Free bet split into 4 x £5. Free bet on accumulators only. Free bet expiry 24 hours. Other free bet terms apply. Maximum pay-outs apply. GamCare.org.uk | UK only. Full T&Cs apply.

Click here or below to get the best price outright odds on World Cup winners with PricedUp

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