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These are JOE’s 7 top Grand National picks
The texts and tweets will start early. Every Grand National Saturday is the same: “Hi mate, any tips?”
It is as close as we get to a race that stops a nation. It’s the biggest TV audience for ITV Racing and it’s by far the biggest turnover race for bookmakers.
The National is also one of the most tightly graded handicaps on the programme, over a marathon four miles and two furlongs, that’s nearly seven kilometres, with thirty fences of varying shapes and sizes in the way. It’s a cliché to say it’s a lottery, but with no winning favourite since 2010, the cliché holds some credence.
In a race that looks so stacked in the bookmakers’ favour, they do offer concessions to get punters cash. Have a nose around for value before you part with your hard-earned pounds: Unibet go seven places for each way bettors.
Errands are frequent journeys for fools and there are few as likely to lead to ridicule as narrowing the Grand National field down to just a handful of runners. Like a brave Countdown player, start with two from the top, and see if you can do the sums to divide forty into seven.
The Champions League places in the market will most likely be Tiger Roll, Rathvinden, Anibale Fly and Vintage Clouds. The latter is the only one trained outside Ireland. Huge yards dominate National Hunt racing, yet Messrs Nicholls, Henderson, Mullins and Elliot have only four wins in the big race between them, using the term ‘only’ in the context of the domination they show elsewhere in the sport.
Tiger Roll will dominate much of the build-up to this race but the price he is makes him an unattractive betting proposition. To see him do it would be a privilege, without cash on.
Of the top four, Anibale Fly is the best horse, but consequently, he has to carry the biggest weight. His stamina and class are not in doubt. He took the scenic route last year, so covering a little less ground will be a better strategy this year. With seven places on offer, he cannot be out of the frame.
Rathvinden looks like he will shorten further and apart from the slight question marks over his jumping he ticks the right boxes. Having Ruby Walsh on board will do his chances no harm; calm is required amongst the madness of the early stages in the race in particular.
The horses in the mid-price range, so bigger than 16/1 but shorter than 33/1, provide many attractive betting opportunities. There have been editions of this race in the past where horses like Pleasant Company, Jury Duty, General Principle, Rock the Kasbah, Step Back and Joe Farrell were disputing favouritism.
However, the fence modifications in 2012 and the increased prize money have created a much deeper contest, with much classier horses in the field. From this sector of the market, the main selection is Pleasant Company. He was charging at Tiger Roll in 2018 and only denied in a photo, he finds himself on better terms weight wise with the favourite, he is proven over track and trip, will love the ground, has a Gold Cup-winning jockey on board. There’s little to dislike about his chances.
Another who ticks the trends boxes is Lake View Lad. He could be a record fourth Grand National winner for owner Trevor Hemmings. He’s very progressive and finished third at Cheltenham when last seen. He will handle the going and from his eleven runs over fences has only finished out of the first three once. He stayed on very nicely at Cheltenham, so a step up in trip will suit this son of Oscar.
The Hail Mary efforts near the bottom of the market feature a few familiar faces and were they to win the surprise might not be as big as the price suggests. Firstly Don Poli, who exchanged hands for £170,000 only on Thursday evening, runs here off a mark of 157. It’s remarkable to think he was rated 167 in early 2016. Maybe his best days are behind him, but new connections should conceivably get two Grand National runs out of him. In fourteen chase starts he has finished in the first three eleven times. He went off at 10/1 a year ago, he might be bigger than 50/1 this year.
Jack Kennedy rides at Gordon Elliot’s yard every morning and shares the best of the yard’s mounts with Davy Russell (on Tiger Roll). One would think that such loyalty from Kennedy should garner goodwill in the pecking order. Through that flawed logic, the price about proven stayer Dounikos looks generous. He jumps and stays and stays some more, picking up some place money looks like well within his compass.
Ballyoptic at around 33/1 was only touched off by Joe Farrell in the Scottish National in 2018, Mon Mome took the same route to victory in 2009. Nigel Twiston Davies runner has not run well since that effort, but that’s why he’s the price he is. He has won on heavy, beating Vintage Clouds and was fourth in the RSA last year. A big run would not be out of turn.
Countdown finishes with a conundrum, here’s my risky seven to take the game…
JOE’s Grand National picks:
- Pleasant Company
- Lake View Lad
- Rathvinden
- Ballyoptic
- Anibale Fly
- Dounikos
- Don Poli
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