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Published 16:27 13 Aug 2021 BST
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LONDON, ENGLAND - AUGUST 07: Manchester City Manager Pep Guardiola talks to Jack Grealish before his debut for Manchester City during the The FA Community Shield between Manchester City and Leicester City at Wembley Stadium on August 07, 2021 in London, England. (Photo by Visionhaus/Getty Images)[/caption]
Top four: Chelsea, Manchester United, Liverpool
Chelsea managed to finish fourth last season despite their top goalscorer being Jorginho, with seven penalties. With the addition of Romelu Lukaku, and without the burden of being managed by Frank Lampard for half a season, they will be City's closest contenders. United have strengthened in key areas, and Liverpool have their best two defenders back. Leicester will make another push for Champions League football but it's hard to envisage them breaking into the top four.
Golden boot: Romelu Lukaku
Usually I would back Harry Kane to win the golden boot, because he normally does win it. But given the uncertainty surrounding his future, I can't fully commit to backing him to win it again. If he does eventually move to Manchester City, I will probably change my mind, but right now I'm backing Chelsea's Romelu Lukaku to rack up enough goals to take home the golden boot. He is a different player to the one who left Manchester United, and will be getting some of the best service in the league from the likes of Mason Mount and Kai Havertz.
Relegated: Southampton, Newcastle, Norwich
Saints were one of the most bipolar teams in the league last season, and without Danny Ings' goals, they look destined for a dogfight.
Newcastle were probably the least entertaining team in the league this season, and have done nothing in the transfer window to improve on last season's squad. Steve Bruce is still their manager. This should be the year they finally go down.
Norwich are Norwich. They're not allowed to stay up. Those are the rules.
First manager to go: Xisco
Watford have had more managers than Elton John has had hot dinners and that will not change any time soon. Whichever unknown coach takes over at Vicarage Road will probably keep them up, and depart at the start of the following season, such are the rules of nature.
Surprise package (team): Aston Villa
Losing Grealish will take some adjustment, but their team has all the makings of a Europa League outfit. With Ings and Watkins being supplied by Leon Bailey and Emi Buendia, they will cause a lot of teams problems in attack.
Surprise package (player): Conor Gallagher
A year after making the mistake of loaning Michy Batshuayi instead of Conor Gallagher, Crystal Palace finally have their man. Gallagher will add some much needed dynamism to Palace's midfield, where he will have more freedom to express himself under Patrick Vieira than he did under Sam Allardyce at West Brom.
With Virgil van Dijk back from injury and new signing Ibrahima Konate expected to join him in the heart of defence, Liverpool appear to be stronger at the back following the nightmarish injury troubles that blighted their title defence last season. Konate, however, remains Liverpool's only major acquisition in a summer where they have lost Georginio Wijnaldum. Though they showed flickers of their old selves towards the end of last season, it feels like the squad still needs one or two new faces. Whether they arrive or not, they should - assuming everyone stays fit - have enough to seal a top four berth once again.
Golden boot: Harry Kane
I understand the logic behind Wayne and Reuben going for Lukaku on this - I also believe he'll score for fun - but I can't see past Kane. If he stays, Spurs are never going to bench him (at least not after the City game) and he'll still be their penalty taker no matter how many training session he goes on to miss. Lukaku probably won't be at Chelsea. If Kane goes to City, which I suspect will still happen, he'll be on the end of even more goal scoring opportunities than he is now. Stay or go, he'll still win it.
Relegated: Newcastle, Southampton, Watford
I should kick this off by saying I have a knack of calling relegation candidates wrong every single season. With that in mind, congratulations on beating the drop, Newcastle, Watford and Southampton!
But seriously.
Newcastle, as Reuben says, didn't exactly wow anyone last season but did finish a comfortable 17 points clear of the drop. Instead of building on this with new signings, Mike Ashley has yet again failed to do any meaningful business. They begin the season weaker than they did the last, with an unpopular manager in charge. Should things not start well, it could get ugly quite quickly.
Watford's promotion last year was built on a solid backline. Their defence will come under even more strain in the Premier League, however, and despite their bloated squad, there doesn't appear to be much in the way of goal threat at the other end of the field to make up for it. Short of cash, this isn't likely to change before the close of the window, either. Xisco Munoz will probably lose his job this side of Christmas. Managerial sackings are what Watford do.
There was a time in the middle of last season where Southampton seemed in real trouble, failing to win nine games in a row. Their form improved last season, but the loss of Danny Ings feels significant. For a side that has finished in the bottom half of the table for three seasons on the spin, losing a man who has scored over 40 goals for them in that time feels significant. Perhaps Adam Armstrong will fill those shoes, but what if he doesn't?
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SOUTHAMPTON, ENGLAND - AUGUST 04: Head Coach Ralph Hasenhuttl of Southampton reacts during a pre-season friendly between Southampton FC and Levante UD at St Mary's Stadium on August 04, 2021 in Southampton, England. (Photo by Robin Jones/Getty Images)[/caption]
Surprise package (team): Brentford
It's all too easy to write Brentford off. Many will look at their name, see that they've not been a top flight club in nearly 80 years and instantly assume they're relegation fodder. Under Thomas Frank, though, they play exciting, front-foot football and will be a fun addition to the Premier League. In Ivan Toney they have a player who couldn't stop scoring last season. This may well be a new experience for them all, but they won't be fazed in the slightest. Don't be surprised if they finish comfortably above the drop zone.
Surprise package (player): Emi Buendía
So much of the talk about Aston Villa's summer has been dominated by their unsuccessful attempts to keep Jack Grealish. Replacing him will be impossible, but in Emi Buendia, they have a player who will add some of the creativity and zest lost by their former captain. Villa did well to get him ahead of Arsenal and I sense he will prove to be another shrewd signing in the months to come.
First manager to go; Xisco
Reasons explained above.
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