Football finance expert lays out unprecedented points deduction Man City could face

Man City are still awaiting their official verdict

14 months have now passed since the case to decide City's fate first began and yet no verdict has yet been reached.

In the months since City were first charged, another Premier League side have already been handed a punishment for a similar albeit smaller offence.

In November 2023 Everton were handed down a 10-point deduction, which was then reduced to six on appeal, for a £19.5m overspend of Premier League PSR rules.

The reason as to why City's case has taken so much longer is, at least on the surface, relatively simple: it's much more complicated than the Everton case.

Everton were charged just the once by the Premier League, while City face 115 charges.

Everton may have disputed some of the Premier League's claims about their accounts, but there is no suggestion whatsoever that they were deliberately dishonest.

Fortunately, Kieran Maguire, a British academic, author, and broadcaster who specialises on accountancy within association football, has broken down the Man City situation, even offering a prediction on the punishment they may face.

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Maguire appeared on this week's episode of The Overlap's Fan Debate show, where he offered insights into what the future looks like for Man City.

The writer, best known for The Price of Football, made clear that those involved in deciding Man City's case are not "football people" meaning their timeline for a verdict will not consider dates like the end of the current season, and it could even be revealed on the "day of the World Cup final."

After breaking down what makes the Man City situation so unique, Maguire laid out his expectations for a punishment:

"The Premier League cannot relegate Man City to League 1 or League 2 because that is an EFL decision and Manchester City have not had any charges proven against them by the EFL; therefore it has to be a points deduction.

"If we look at the precedence, we've had four and six point deductions for a single offence covering a three-year period. The accusations against Man City cover a nine year period.

"I think you have to add another zero to what we've seen in terms of Forest and Everton.

"Somewhere between a 40 and 60 point deduction would, on merit, make sense logically."

The punishments faced by those at Man City would likely stretch further than simply the realms of the football pitch, and the case could have major ramifications for club leaders, right up to board level.

"In the case of both Forest and Everton, they were to do with FFP purely, the accusation against Man City, [which includes] corporate fraud is a very serious accusation, [and] the board of directors would have to go [if the accusation is proven]," Maguire continued.

"Look at the case of Juventus [following case of false accounting in 2022] in Serie A, the Juventus board had to resign when they were claiming things about higher wages that weren't true."

While the wait has been long and arduous for Premier League fans, the final decision is now anticipated within the coming months.