Boris Johnson projected to lose seat in next general election, huge poll predicts

Charlie Herbert

Johnson is one of five cabinet members projected to lose their seat

A major poll has predicted that Boris Johnson could lose his parliamentary seat at the next general election, with the Conservative Party projected to make huge losses amongst the electorate.

The Survation survey of 10,000 adults was carried out on behalf of campaign group 38 Degrees, and predicts that the Tories would have their majority wiped out and lose more than 100 seats.

It put Labour on 41 percent and predicts them to be the biggest party in a hung parliament.

The Tories would win 255 seats, a net loss of 111, while Labour would return 309 seats – just 11 short of a majority, according to multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) analysis.

After two weeks of headlines dominated by Downing Street Parties and allegations of sleaze around Owen Paterson and a number of other Conservative figures, these latest numbers reflect an almost total reversal of each main party's fortunes since the end of November. pic.twitter.com/zrCTYRmU98

— Survation. (@Survation) December 27, 2021

Along with the Prime Minister, the other cabinet ministers on course to lose their seats are environment secretary George Eustice, Scottish secretary Alister Jack, Welsh secretary Simon Hart and Cop26 president Alok Sharma.

Prof Christopher Hanretty of Royal Holloway University, who helped carry out the MRP analysis, said: “Given that older voters are ordinarily much more likely to vote Conservative, this shows the potential for accusations of sleaze to shift votes by depriving the Conservatives of this important electoral bulwark.”

The survey also asked the public to judge the government’s behaviour using the 7 Nolan principles for standards in public office. Using MRP we can see the effect by constituency, and below, by region. pic.twitter.com/a9x5hbjTIY

— Survation. (@Survation) December 27, 2021

Only three of the 40 crucial “red wall” seats that the Tories claimed in the North of England and the Midlands in 2019 are projected to be held by the Conservatives – Dudley North, Morley & Outwood and Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland.

And the party would lose all of their seats in Scotland, with the SNP set to take each of them.

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