Poll predicts Keir Starmer will lose his seat to the Green Party at next election

Though there's still a few years left until our next General Election, the Green Party renaissance will give Sir Keir some food for thought

Find Out Now poll puts Green Party in second – and Keir Starmer’s seat at risk

Criticised for ‘aping’ Reform by Green Party leader Zack Polanski, Sir Keir has struggled to match the insurgency of Nigel Farage and his colleagues, with the right-leaning organisation consistently topping the opinion polls throughout 2025. Labour, meanwhile, have seen their support plummet.

If these trends continues through to the next election, Reform would secure a super-majority – one that surpasses the margin of victory Labour claimed in 2024. In fact, feeding the data from Find Out Now’s research into the electoral calculus turns up some rather intriguing results.

Of course, there’s a long old road to 2029. Many of the scenarios generated by the electoral calculus results are based on current trends and educated assumptions. But there’s one projected outcome that has become impossible to ignore – and that is the fate of Keir Starmer’s supposed ‘safe seat’.

The constituency of Holborn & St. Pancras, which Starmer won by a margin of almost 10,000 votes, has been identified as one of the 47 additional seats the Green Party would claim if the data holds true. After spending most of his time in office combating the threat from right, the PM risks being blindsided by the left instead.

Reform super-majority on the cards

Looking at more than 32% of public support, Reform would be looking at claiming more than 400 seats. Then there’s something of a pile up, with Labour, the Tories, and the Green party polling within 1% of each other. However, its the Greens who are now the second-most popular party.

At 17%, Polanski has the the left-wing group to their highest-ever projected share of the votes. Although they’d be more than 350 seats behind Reform based on the current data, the broad application into constituencies across the country would also place them as the official opposition.