Holborn and St Pancras: who will win in Labour vs Green by-election?

On the eve of the Holborn and St Pancras by-election, we look at the state of play in North London.

Labour have held the North London seat ever since it was created in 1983. But, after the last 12 months, this was a constituency that was no longer so safe for them in the face of a resurgent Green Party.

Whilst in large swathes of the country it is Reform who have been the main threat to Labour, in London it has been the Greens.

Andy Burnham’s first electoral test as PM

Dissatisfaction with Starmer on issues such as welfare and Gaza combined with Zack Polanski’s eco-populism meant voters in the capital were flocking towards the Greens.

The polls showed this and at the local elections the Greens had huge success in London. Seats like Holborn and St Pancras were now firmly in the crosshairs of the Greens.

READ NEXT: Green Party insider: Zack Polanski is the reason Andy Burnham is Prime Minister

Then, the man who had catapulted the Green Party up the polls announced he would be standing in Holborn and St Pancras.

It is Camden council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali who is representing Labour in the vote. But, the symbolism of this by-election is obvious – a mini-referendum on whether Burnham has won back voters in the capital who turned away from Labour under Starmer and moved towards the Greens.

Labour with momentum, Greens stalling?

The bookies made Labour early favourites to retain the seat, but the Greens were given a fighting chance at 3/1. When Polanski announced he would be standing, these odds shortened to 2/1 and it seemed as if momentum was firmly with him.

But in recent weeks, it is Labour who shored up their position in Holborn and St Pancras. Popular policy announcements from Burnham culminated in his stirring party conference speech, with Labour continuing to see increases in support in the polls.

Meanwhile, the wind has gone from the Green sails somewhat. The party have found themselves squeezed out by Burnham’s old-school Labour rhetoric, something Polanski has admitted.

At the same time, discontent and doubts about Polanski’s leadership have grown, with traditional Greens unhappy about the party’s more radical direction under him.

This disquiet blew up at the Green conference when the party adopted a motion that ‘Zionism is racism.’ Many senior Greens disagree with the motion, which has been widely condemned by parties across the political spectrum. Polanski has stayed neutral on the matter, neither supporting or opposing it.

Labour clear favourites in Holborn and St Pancras

So, what is the state of play on the eve of voting in Holborn and St Pancras. In short, Labour are heavy favourites. The bookies now have Abdi-Wali as short 1/12 to win, with Polanski at around 7/1.

Whilst the national polls have Labour in the mid-to-high twenties and the Greens at around the 10% mark, this would be expected to be much closer in a central London seat like Holborn and St Pancras.

But a recent projection from polling aggregator Stats for Lefties predicted that Labour would win with 39% of the vote, compared to the Greens’ 32%.

In isolation, this would be by no means a bad result for Polanski. To still win almost a third of the vote despite Burnham’s popularity could easily be framed as a successful night. There is a sense though that it could fuel further doubts over his leadership, combined with the controversies affecting the Greens.

And of course, the Greens could still win in Holborn and St Pancras. On issues such as wealth taxes, rent controls and some climate policies, they hold a clear difference of position to Labour. These could cut through with voters.

Perhaps though it is polling expert John Curtice who has best summed up the chances of a shock Green win.

Speaking at a fringe event at the Green Party conference, he explained that the results from May’s local elections had the Greens about four points behind Labour, once you add in the vote for candidates who are not standing in Holborn and St Pancras and would be expected to move to the Greens.

“Since then, Labour’s votes in the polls has gone up, yours has gone down,” he continued.  

“So basically if you do succeed in winning the by-election, I’m not saying you won’t, but if you do succeed it will be regarded as a very substantial shot at Westminster.”