Burnham early election: No 10 advisers ‘pushing’ for spring vote

Why a Burnham early election matters to voters

Downing Street reportedly wants the Primer Minister to call the election next year, believing a spring vote, held before rivals recover, gives Labour its clearest shot at retaining power.

The Telegraph reports that senior figures around the prime minister see the window as the party's best chance, yet no final decision has been made.

A YouGov MRP poll, reported by the Independent, modelled how individual constituencies would vote.

It put Labour on course to remain the largest party, with 241 seats to the Conservatives and Reform UK's combined 253. That would leave Labour 85 seats short of a majority on its own.

Reform UK's continued rise is, according to commentator Peter Oborne, waging war on what Britain is. 

The election plan carries conditions of its own as advisers reportedly believe a spring vote only becomes realistic once the Middle East crisis has settled, living costs ease and energy prices fall.

Labour would need allies to govern on these numbers with the poll projecting 71 seats to Lib Dems and nine for Polanski's Greens.

The party's resurgent rivals have had a fundraising boost too as Reform's political donations passing £72m in two days have become a noteworthy event earlier this month.

A senior government source told the Telegraph there was "a diverse opinion across government" over the timing.

They said Mr Burnham would be "naive not to be contemplating all scenarios".

The source added that Sir Keir Starmer's original manifesto had left the party with "one hand tied behind our back".

"There are lots of things we can do within the red lines of the manifesto, but that is not the prime minister's manifesto," they said.

Government figures remain split on timing, with deciding factors lying well beyond Westminster's control: a ceasefire, cheaper energy and a calmer cost of living picture.

The early election would take place in spring 2027, if advisers get their way, but only when certain conditions have been met or eased out.

The Middle East crisis is a big one, where Burnham aims speed up processes in his ongoing foreign policies.

However, the PM has not forgotten his earlier promises, aiming to bettering living costs and pushing for lower energy prices.

Nevertheless, an earlier election would still not set Labour's governance in stone.

Labour's projected 241 seats would leave it 85 short of a majority, meaning it would need allies such as the Liberal Democrats (71 seats) or the Greens (nine) to govern.