2016 Leave majority ‘has literally died out’, polling expert reveals

There is now an 8.1 million majority in favour of rejoining the EU

YouGov founder Peter Kellner has carried out research concluding that there is likely a pro-EU majority of around 8 million.

In the 2016 referendum, the Leave vote won by 1.3 million votes.

But, writing in the New European, Kellner said more than 6 million Britons have passed away.

Mentioning recent talk in Westminster around closening ties with the EU, Kellner wrote: "What should we make of this? Let us start with the basic fact that the pro-Brexit majority in 2016 has gone. It has literally died out."

Using voter turnout and demographic statistics from the referendum, Kellner said it could be assumed that 5 million of those who have died voted in the referendum.

Of this 5 million, some 3.2 million will have voted Leave.

He wrote: "This means that among people who are alive today and who voted in the 2016 referendum, remainers exceed leavers by 14.3-14.2 million."

Kellner went on to point out how six million people have reached voting age since 2016, and YouGov data suggests these voters back rejoining the EU by "five-to-one."

Taking into account the lower voter turnout from young people, Kellner concluded around 3 million of these voters would vote, so "remainers outnumber leavers by 2.5 to 0.5 million."

Finally, taking into account those who voted Leave in 2016 but have since changed their mind on Brexit and want to rejoin the EU, Kellner concluded: "The combined impact of demographics and changed minds is to convert a 1.3 million majority for leaving the EU into an 8.1 million majority for rejoining it.

"Even the greatest landslide election victories have come nowhere close to this lead in the popular vote."

Kellner rejected claims that another vote on Brexit would be undemocratic, making the point that this would suggest that "the votes of the dead count for more than the views of the young."

In recent weeks, there has been a marked shift in attitude from the Labour government towards Brexit and the EU.

Keir Starmer recently called out "wild promises" from the Brexit campaign, whilst some ministers have called out the damage leaving the EU has done to the UK economy.