Met Office delivers verdict on rumoured 41C scorcher in UK next week
Factor 50 at the ready
The Met Office has given its verdict on rumours that a sizzling 41C heatwave could hit the UK next week.
A supercomputer model from The Weather Outlook suggested the temperature could exceed 40C in the UK from July 11 onwards. It forecast highs of 40C in Bristol next Thursday and a whopping 41C in London next Saturday.
The highest ever temperature in the UK was recorded in Cambridge on July 25, 2019 - a staggering 38.7C. So, if these latest 40 plus predictions were to come true, it would be a historic moment for the nation.
But Met Office metrologist Annie Shuttleworth has shared doubts about whether the UK can expect to break record temperatures next week.
She told The Mirror: "The most likely situation for next week is temperatures in the low 30s. Further ahead there's a lot less confidence - those high temperatures could stay for the rest of next week but could also possibly cool down again."
The meteorologist said the team are expecting "a warm spell for the rest of this week and over the weekend."
She said: "Many areas will remain dry and sunny as high pressure dominates the weather for much of the UK. This will allow temperatures to increase day on the day for the rest of the week and over the weekend. It will be in the mid to high 20s in central and southern areas over the weekend."
Also casting doubt over the 40 plus predictions, Meteorologist Aiden McGivern warned of the dangers of focusing on such forecasts.
Still a long way off and still a big range of possible temperatures for mid July but, for London (top) and Paris (bottom), it's remarkable to see the boxes and whiskers so far above the average line.
These boxes and whiskers are from 50 runs of the European model, midday today pic.twitter.com/BBTAfa7c5R
— Aidan McGivern (@aidanweather) July 5, 2022
He said: "Meteorologists don't just pick one or two computer model runs, we look at many different computer model runs to get the full picture of the likely weather trends, the range of possible temperatures and the kinds of uncertainties we're dealing with when looking at the weather more than a week ahead."
He added: "So what we can say for the likes of London and more especially across the southern half of the UK is that we'll see a warming trend through this week and into next week. Temperatures will be above average, but just how far above average those temperatures end up, well, that is open to uncertainty at the moment."
The Weather Outlook founder and meteorologist Brian Gaze agreed that the estimates only represent a possibility and can change multiple times until the actual event occurs.
Speaking to The Express, he said: "These computer models showing possible scenarios are run by forecasting centres hundreds of times a day. We can’t be specific when we are looking more than a week ahead, but, at the top end, some of these models have shown extremely hot conditions of up to 41C.
"It's certainly the first time that I've seen a computer model show 40C degrees in the UK. At the moment, the current prediction models for the same period of time show temperatures within the low 30s."
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