Early release plan confirmed: about 700 prisoners to be freed on 1 October

The first wave of early prisoner releases is now just weeks away

Around 700 eligible prisoners in England and Wales are expected to be released on the morning of 1 October, with the total reaching roughly 2,550 by the end of the year under the government’s revised early release scheme, according to BBC reporting. The updated plan has now been signed into law and published online, with most of the original timetable still in place. The biggest changes are that the start of the scheme has been pushed back by a month and certain offences have been removed from the programme. Under the initial plans, prisoners serving sentences of up to 19 months could have been released from 2 September after completing one-third of their sentence. The changes mean around 1,400 fewer prisoners are expected to be released than originally planned. Speaking in the Commons on Wednesday, Prime Minister Andy Burnham said he recognised the “anguish” felt by victims and had listened to their concerns. He said changes had been made after he entered office, specifically ruling out offenders convicted of rape, grooming and child sexual offences from the early release scheme.

Who qualifies under the early release plan

The first prisoners will become eligible for release on 1 October, with officials expecting around 700 people to leave prison that day. A further 650 prisoners are due to be released from 13 October, covering those serving sentences of between 19 months and two years and five months. The rest of an estimated 4,500 releases are then phased in, according to Ministry of Justice calculations:

• From 10 November: 650 offenders serving up to three years and two months
• From 8 December: 550 offenders serving up to four years and three months
• From 12 January 2027: 600 offenders serving up to five years and nine months
• From 9 February 2027: 500 offenders serving up to seven years and six months
• From 9 March 2027: 200 offenders serving up to nine years

A further tranche is scheduled for 13 April.

Prisons are running at 97% capacity

The government is also facing growing pressure from an already overcrowded prison system.

Prisons across England and Wales are currently operating at 97% capacity, with the latest Ministry of Justice figures showing that just around 1,500 spaces remain across the male prison estate, the lowest figure recorded so far this year.

The shortened timetable has also left officials with far less time to prepare for the next wave of releases. Under the original schedule, prisons and probation services would have had almost six weeks to make arrangements between the first group leaving prison and the second tranche. That window has now been cut to less than two weeks.