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09th Apr 2019

Brexit has cost UK economy £66 billion before it’s even happened

Brexit has already cost the UK economy £66 billion before it's even happened, and will trigger a recession, according to S&P Global Ratings

Reuben Pinder

Did anybody vote for this?

Almost three years since the EU referendum, the UK has still not left the EU, still doesn’t have a popular plan on how to leave the EU, is requesting an extension before leaving the EU, and has lost £66 billion.

That is according to data from S&P Global Ratings analyst Boris Glass, whose data indicates that Britain is on the brink of recession, with its GDP slipping to 0%.

Brexit has not happened yet.

The vote triggered a decline in the value of the pound, drove several companies out of the country, taking jobs with them, due to the uncertainty around the UK’s relationship with Europe in the future.

Brexit has not happened yet.

Various factors including an increase in inflation, erosion of household spending power, decline in house prices, and weak exports caused a 3% decrease in the country’s GDP, which Glass says “translates into average forgone economic activity of £6.6 billion (in 2016 prices) in each of the 10 quarters since the referendum.”

Brexit has not happened yet.

The graph below shows the UK’s GDP value (yellow) in contrast to an estimated value based on comparable economies. The dotted line comprises a weighted basket of countries with similar economies, which produced a trend identical to the UK’s growth before the EU referendum.

Brexit has not happened yet.

The reported figure of a £66 billion loss suggests that on average, each British citizen is £1000 poorer than they would have been if the Brexit referendum had not taken place.

Brexit has not happened yet.

After Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement failed to pass through the Commons on three separate occasions, and cross-party talks have broken down, it seems like the Conservatives are planning to hold European elections in May, with another long extension to the Brexit process looming.

An email to potential candidates read: “Due to the current situation we will be contesting the European elections on May 23 and the closing date for nominations is April 24.”

1,020 days later, Brexit has not happened yet.